Medicare Advantage Premiums May Fall in 2027. Provider Choice May Shrink. In California, the Average Premium Is Rising.

Medicare's annual enrollment window opens on October 15 and closes on December 7, 2026. The national numbers CMS has published are favorable on one line of a plan's cost. The insurers' own 2027 decisions point the other way on networks and geography. And California's state figures add a third fact: here, the average Medicare Advantage premium is going up.

The dates that matter

Source: CMS state fact sheets, September 28, 2026. People who want to keep their current coverage do not need to re-enroll.

Three records, side by side

Nationally, CMS also projects that the average monthly drug premium in Medicare Advantage plans with drug coverage falls from $11.32 to $7, while the average stand-alone Part D premium rises by less than a dollar, from $35.09 to $36, as a temporary premium demonstration winds down (Healthcare Finance News).

The insurers have been explicit about direction. UnitedHealthcare told investors in July that it would protect margins in its 2027 bids through "benefit adjustments and selective changes in market participation" (Benefits Life). In May, Reuters reported that investors expected fewer extra benefits, such as dental, vision and fitness, after CMS set an average 2.48 percent payment increase for 2027 (Reuters via Yahoo Finance).

AnalysisA lower average premium and a narrower network are not contradictory; the second can pay for the first. For a beneficiary, the premium is the least informative number on the page.

What CMS reports for California

CMS also reports that 7,243,867 Californians are enrolled in Medicare; 99.64 percent have access to a Medicare Advantage plan, including one with a $0 premium; every stand-alone Part D enrollee in California has access to a plan with a lower premium than in 2026; and 32.27 percent of stand-alone Part D enrollees receive Extra Help.

What an average cannot tell you

1. Whether your doctors stay in network. Network changes are plan-specific. Check every physician and hospital you rely on.
2. Whether your drugs stay on the formulary, at what tier, and with what prior-authorization or step-therapy rules.
3. Your total out-of-pocket cost. Premium is one line. Deductibles, copays, coinsurance and the annual maximum decide what a year of illness costs.
4. Whether a $0-premium plan is cheap for you. A $0 premium can sit beside higher cost-sharing or a narrower network.

Compare plans in this order

1. Premium.
2. Your primary care physician.
3. Your specialists.
4. Your hospitals, including the one nearest your home.
5. Every prescription, at its tier.
6. Prior-authorization and step-therapy rules for your drugs and likely services.
7. Out-of-network coverage, if any.
8. The maximum out-of-pocket amount.
9. Dental, vision and hearing extras, last.

A practical sequence

1. Open your plan's Annual Notice of Change, mailed in September.
2. List your physicians, hospitals, pharmacies and every prescription with its dose.
3. Use Medicare Plan Finder to compare total estimated annual cost, not just premium. In the Fresno area, search with your own ZIP code.
4. Check Star Ratings after they are posted, on or about October 8.
5. If your income is limited, ask whether you qualify for a Medicare Savings Program or Extra Help.
6. Make any change between October 15 and December 7, 2026.

A caution before leaving Medicare Advantage. Returning to Original Medicare during Open Enrollment is permitted, but outside guaranteed-issue situations a Medigap insurer may consider your health history in deciding whether to sell you a supplemental policy and at what price. Talk to a counselor before dropping a Medicare Advantage plan.

Free, unbiased counseling is available through California's Health Insurance Counseling and Advocacy Program (HICAP). 1-800-MEDICARE operates 24 hours a day.