All 24 analyses and the record
Published
Evidence cutoff (Pacific) · election baseline re-checked · AI-assisted analysis · human review pending
The earlier forecast record is unchanged
The forecasts already published on the Forecasts page keep their IDs, original wording, probabilities and scoring. The ten assessments below are a new, separately dated register. They are qualitative editorial judgments, not outputs of a validated statistical model.
Ten selected, explicitly resolvable editorial judgments. Sector articles also contain conditional scenarios and directional analysis that are not scored as binary events.
Likely/Unlikely are qualitative judgments. Confidence describes evidence supporting the assessment, not a calibrated event probability. Continuity and routine-institution forecasts are labeled as benchmarks.
Preserve original wording and every dated revision. Resolve only against the listed event. Do not calculate Brier scores without probabilities, count milestones as forecasting wins or equate a small number of easy events with general predictive accuracy.
Issued: November 6, 2026, Pacific (published on this site November 7, 2026). Status: all events open at issue. Existing forecasts: preserve their IDs, wording, probabilities and scoring independently.
F-PE2026-01 — Federal domestic-policy oversight
Event: By June 30, 2027, at least one House or Senate committee controlled by the incoming majority will conduct a public hearing specifically examining implementation or financing of a federal domestic-policy program.
Assessment: Likely. Confidence in the assessment: High. Deadline: 2027-06-30.
Congressional control changes committee agendas more directly than it changes statutes. This is a baseline institutional forecast, not evidence of unusual forecasting skill.
Resolution: An official committee notice plus a hearing record establishes occurrence. A press statement or proposed hearing without a completed proceeding does not.
If no qualifying hearing occurs by the deadline, resolve No. A hearing does not establish compliance, a legal remedy or improved services.
Revision triggers: Committee organization, announced agendas or a change in control that materially alters the premise.
Resolution evidence: Official committee calendars, hearing transcripts and published records.
Related analyses: A New Congressional Majority, a Divided Government: What the 2026 Election Can Actually Change; The Power to Investigate, the Power to Fund: What Democratic Oversight Can Deliver; What a Century of American Government Can—and Cannot—Tell Us About 2027; The Medi-Cal Test: Whether Coverage Survives the Journey from Washington to a Fresno Exam Room.
F-PE2026-02 — Formal information demands
Event: By December 31, 2027, at least one committee controlled by the incoming congressional majority will publicly document issuance of a subpoena for executive-branch records or testimony concerning administration of federal policy.
Assessment: Likely. Confidence in the assessment: Moderate. Deadline: 2027-12-31.
An opposition majority has incentives and institutional tools to seek information; issuance and successful enforcement are different outcomes.
Resolution: An official committee record identifies an issued subpoena directed to an executive-branch official or agency. A voluntary request, threat, private-party subpoena or unconfirmed report does not qualify.
Resolve No if no qualifying issuance is documented. Do not score production, judicial enforcement or a policy change as part of this event.
Revision triggers: Negotiated disclosure could make formal demands unnecessary; committee rules and actual investigative priorities could change.
Resolution evidence: Official committee records and, where relevant, court dockets.
Related analyses: The Power to Investigate, the Power to Fund: What Democratic Oversight Can Deliver; A President Facing an Opposition Congress: Where Power Moves, and Where It Stops.
F-PE2026-03 — Full statutory repeal of the Medicaid community-engagement requirement
Event: By December 31, 2027, federal legislation will have become law eliminating the community-engagement requirement created by Public Law 119-21 section 71119 for all populations to which that section applies.
Assessment: Unlikely. Confidence in the assessment: Moderate. Deadline: 2027-12-31.
The incoming majority can seek amendments, but enactment still requires presidential agreement or an override. Administrative relief has a different legal effect.
Resolution: A public law repeals the operative requirement for the full covered population. A delay, exemption, narrower amendment, agency decision, court order or introduced bill is not full statutory repeal.
Resolve Yes if the defined law is enacted by the deadline; otherwise No. Do not treat an invalidating court judgment as statutory repeal.
Revision triggers: A negotiated presidential agreement, an override coalition, or a broader fiscal bargain that includes repeal.
Resolution evidence: Enacted public laws, Congress.gov legislative history and operative statutory text.
Related analyses: The Medi-Cal Test: Whether Coverage Survives the Journey from Washington to a Fresno Exam Room.
F-PE2026-04 — Operating California single-payer system
Event: By December 31, 2028, California will be operating a comprehensive statewide single-payer system that actually pays for covered care for the general resident population through the new statewide arrangement.
Assessment: Unlikely. Confidence in the assessment: Moderate. Deadline: 2028-12-31.
Financing, federal-program coordination, legislation and administrative transition are substantial conditions. Political support alone does not satisfy them.
Resolution: An operative law and financing plan are in force, enrollment or entitlement is active statewide, and the system has begun paying covered claims for the general resident population. A commission, bill, waiver request, limited pilot or existing Medi-Cal arrangement does not qualify.
Resolve Yes only when all operating conditions are documented. Enactment without operation is not a Yes.
Revision triggers: Enacted recurring financing, approved federal arrangements where necessary, implementation contracts and a credible launch timetable.
Resolution evidence: California enacted law, budget records, DHCS/CMS approvals and audited or official operating reports.
Related analyses: California After Newsom: Becerra’s Governing Choices, Fiscal Limits and the Test of Delivery; The Medi-Cal Test: Whether Coverage Survives the Journey from Washington to a Fresno Exam Room; The Price of an Appointment: What the New Congress and California Can Actually Change About Healthcare Costs.
F-PE2026-05 — Additional California housing-approval legislation
Event: By December 31, 2027, California will enact at least one new law changing residential zoning, approval timelines, review requirements or approval enforcement with the stated purpose of facilitating housing production.
Assessment: Likely. Confidence in the assessment: Moderate. Deadline: 2027-12-31.
The affordability agenda and inherited supply constraints support continued attention to approvals, though financing and construction remain separate outcomes.
Resolution: A chaptered law adopted in 2027 changes at least one listed legal mechanism for residential development. A grant-only appropriation, study or press release does not qualify.
Resolve No if no qualifying chaptered law exists. Passage does not count as completed housing or lower rents.
Revision triggers: A documented change in the governing coalition, policy priorities or the administration’s housing approach.
Resolution evidence: Official chaptered bills, legislative analyses and gubernatorial action records.
Related analyses: California After Newsom: Becerra’s Governing Choices, Fiscal Limits and the Test of Delivery; After the Election, Housing Policy Must Reach the Building Site—and the Front Door.
F-PE2026-06 — Clinical-AI implementation in California
Event: By December 31, 2027, a California state agency will issue at least one new public implementation notice, regulation, procurement standard or enforcement action specifically addressing AI use in clinical decision-making or health-plan utilization management.
Assessment: Likely. Confidence in the assessment: Moderate. Deadline: 2027-12-31.
Existing and newly enacted obligations create implementation work. This predicts a new public action, not the first-ever AI safeguard.
Resolution: A dated official agency document in 2027 addresses the defined healthcare AI uses. A campaign statement, private vendor policy or republished unchanged 2025 guidance does not qualify.
Resolve No if no qualifying new action is documented. The event does not establish clinical effectiveness or universal compliance.
Revision triggers: Federal preemption, court decisions, agency implementation schedules or an identified absence of delegated authority.
Resolution evidence: Official California agency notices, rulemaking records, procurement standards and enforcement releases.
Related analyses: Who Is Responsible When the Algorithm Enters the Exam Room? California’s New Test for Clinical AI.
F-PE2026-07 — Comprehensive federal AI statute
Event: By December 31, 2027, a new federal statute will establish substantive AI decision-system obligations covering all three of healthcare, employment and education, together with an express provision addressing its relationship to state law.
Assessment: Unlikely. Confidence in the assessment: Moderate. Deadline: 2027-12-31.
Agreement on targeted protections is easier than a broad package spanning multiple sectors and federal-state authority; enactment still requires a viable cross-institutional coalition.
Resolution: An enacted public law imposes substantive obligations in all three listed sectors and expressly addresses state-law interaction. A study, executive order, voluntary standard, sector-only law or introduced bill does not qualify.
Resolve Yes only if all defined components are enacted by the deadline; otherwise No. A narrower useful law remains significant but is not this event.
Revision triggers: A detailed bipartisan bill with pivotal-member support and a stated presidential path to approval.
Resolution evidence: Public laws, congressional text and official legislative history.
Related analyses: Who Gets the Last Word? AI, Work, and Education After the Election; The Politics Inside the Shopping Cart: Privacy, Subscriptions, Beauty, Entertainment and Digital Markets.
F-PE2026-08 — Comprehensive Social Security financing agreement
Event: By December 31, 2028, federal legislation will be enacted that the Social Security Chief Actuary publicly estimates would eliminate the combined OASDI 75-year actuarial deficit under the estimate’s stated assumptions.
Assessment: Unlikely. Confidence in the assessment: Moderate. Deadline: 2028-12-31.
The distributional choices in a comprehensive financing agreement face more barriers than routine indexed adjustments or targeted administrative changes.
Resolution: A public law and an attributable Chief Actuary estimate explicitly support the defined 75-year actuarial-balance result. A campaign plan, introduced bill or shorter solvency extension does not qualify.
Resolve Yes only with both enactment and the specified actuarial estimate. Do not treat the estimate as a guarantee of future economic conditions.
Revision triggers: A concrete cross-party financing framework, presidential support and an official actuarial assessment.
Resolution evidence: Enacted law and Social Security Office of the Chief Actuary analyses.
Related analyses: Aging Is Already on the Budget: Social Security, Disability and the Unfinished Care System; After the Election, Follow the Household Dollar: Taxes, Benefits, Wages, and the Fiscal Bargain.
F-PE2026-09 — Broad federal immigration status legislation
Event: By December 31, 2028, federal legislation will become law creating a new nationwide application pathway to lawful permanent residence for a broad class of long-term unauthorized residents, beyond a single occupation, nationality or already narrowly defined humanitarian category.
Assessment: Unlikely. Confidence in the assessment: Moderate. Deadline: 2028-12-31.
Comprehensive agreement faces legislative and presidential constraints; enforcement and administrative action can change without this statute.
Resolution: An enacted law creates the defined pathway with operative eligibility criteria. A proposal, deferred-action policy, temporary protection, visa adjustment for one occupation or narrow category does not qualify.
Resolve Yes on enactment of the defined pathway, not on completion of every application. Border or enforcement legislation alone is not this event.
Revision triggers: A negotiated package with a clear coalition, presidential agreement and specific status provisions.
Resolution evidence: Enacted public laws and official statutory/implementation records.
Related analyses: Immigration After the Election: Who Controls Enforcement, Who Pays for Services, and What Changes in the Central Valley.
F-PE2026-10 — Continuity of the SGMA sustainability deadline
Event: At December 31, 2027, California law will continue to require critically overdrafted basins covered by SGMA to achieve groundwater sustainability by 2040.
Assessment: Likely. Confidence in the assessment: High. Deadline: 2027-12-31.
This is a current-law continuity benchmark. Local implementation choices and funding can change while the statutory endpoint remains.
Resolution: Read the operative statute and any generally applicable injunction or binding order at the deadline. A basin-specific implementation adjustment does not by itself change the statewide legal endpoint.
Resolve No if the general 2040 requirement has been repealed, replaced with a later endpoint or rendered generally inoperative by controlling legal action.
Revision triggers: Enacted amendments or controlling litigation affecting the general deadline.
Resolution evidence: California statutes, DWR and State Water Board records, and applicable court orders.
Related analyses: After the Election, Follow the Electricity Bill, the Water Budget, and the Food Supply; The Fresno Test: A Central Valley Scorecard for the New Political Map.
Keep scheduled events separate
The companion transition milestones list records election canvass dates, term starts and budget deadlines. Those are existing legal or scheduled milestones, not ten additional predictions. A change in an implementation deadline must be documented in the milestone record and in affected articles.
Future editions
Append a new dated version when evidence changes. Keep the first assessment accessible. If an event’s wording proves ambiguous, document the ambiguity before resolution; do not choose the interpretation that makes the forecast appear successful. Publish the strongest contrary evidence and explain any unresolved status.